Dissertation Topic: Three Essays on Applied Macroeconomic Policy Analysis: The Case of a Developing Country

Shahzad Ahmad is working on development of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models that are suitable for policy analysis in Pakistan. These models are vastly applied in academic research and policy-making spheres. To directly contribute to macroeconomic policy-oriented research in Pakistan, Mr. Ahmad is focusing upon utilization of DSGE models for real-time macroeconomic policy analysis. Once developed, the models suitable for policymaking can readily be utilized to address a vast range of academic research questions as well.

Research Publications

1. Raashid, M., Saboor, A. and Ahmad, S., (2020). Fiscal policy transmission mechanism in Pakistan: A general equilibrium analysis. Business Review, 15(1), pp.50-66.

2. Ahmad, S. and Haider, A., (2019). An evaluation of the forecast performance of DSGE and VAR Models: The case of a developing country. Business Review, 14(1), pp.28-52.

3. Ahmad, S. and Pasha, F., (2015). A pragmatic model for monetary policy analysis I: The case of Pakistan. SBP Research Bulletin, 11(1), pp.1-42.

Working Papers

1. Ahmad, S., Ahmed, W., Choudhri, E., Pasha, F. and Tahir, A., 2018. A Model for Forecasting and Policy Analysis in Pakistan: The Role of Government and External Sectors, State Bank of Pakistan Working Paper Series, (WP No. 95).

2. Ahmed, S. and Pasha, F., 2014. The role of money in explaining business cycles for a developing economy: The case of Pakistan State Bank of Pakistan Working Paper Series, (WP No. 74).

3. Ahmed, S., Ahmed, W., Khan, S., Pasha, F. and Rehman, M., 2012. Pakistan economy DSGE model with informality State Bank of Pakistan Working Paper Series, (WP No. 47).

SBP Publications

1. Financial Stability Review 2019 Contribution in Chapter 1 (Global and Domestic Macro-Financial Environment) and Chapter 4 (Resilience of the Banking Sector under Adverse Conditions)

2. Financial Stability Review 2018 Contribution in Chapter 3 (Resilience of the Banking Sector under Stress Scenario)

Dissertation Topic: Essays on Taxation: Evasion, Reforms and Morale

Low tax revenue is one of the problems faced by all the developing economies. I am exploring the measures that could be helpful in addressing this issue, especially in context of Pakistan. I aim to offer some new strategies to reduce income tax evasion along with reforms in the tax structure that enhance tax revenues. My exploration is based on experiments, CGE models and through exploitation of World Value Survey.

Research Publications

1. Sarwar, M. N., Hussain, H., & Maqbool, M. B. (2020). Pass through effects of oil price on food and non-food prices in Pakistan: A nonlinear ARDL      approach. Resources Policy, 69, 101876.

2. SHAHZAD, K., & SARWAR, M. N. (2018). Analysis of Food Demand Patterns of Sindh Province, Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Applied      Economics,28(1), 147-168.

Newspaper Publications

1. Pakistan’s Low Productivity and the way-out Express Tribune https://tribune.com.pk/story/2258770/pakistans-low-productivity-and-the-way-out

2. Sugar Probe and Need for Reforms Express Tribune https://tribune.com.pk/story/2253484/sugar-probe-and-need-for-reforms